Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.604324 1.819102 2.048038 2.309795 2.600348 2.912524 3.272848
2024-12-15 1.372078 1.677788 2.024934 2.446608 2.943143 3.507358 4.195013
2024-12-22 1.158721 1.522801 1.961706 2.525690 3.226637 4.064286 5.135670
2024-12-29 1.029271 1.449006 1.984426 2.709405 3.656138 4.840184 6.421196
2025-01-05 0.851234 1.286436 1.874558 2.713941 3.865130 5.370366 7.465507
2025-01-12 0.720281 1.166778 1.804861 2.762491 4.137856 6.012075 8.722261
2025-01-19 0.602316 1.046129 1.716634 2.773726 4.361163 6.611403 9.984732
2025-01-26 0.530504 0.983647 1.704511 2.893433 4.752271 7.481771 11.706153
2025-02-02 0.463453 0.917114 1.676483 2.985119 5.111978 8.341555 13.492484
2025-02-09 0.398992 0.843121 1.625293 3.032853 5.408527 9.134514 15.250547
2025-02-16 0.346195 0.780229 1.583325 3.089829 5.725255 9.986183 17.170279
2025-02-23 0.287470 0.693825 1.485833 3.037101 5.852650 10.547865 18.681449
2025-03-02 0.232446 0.604968 1.373311 2.949675 5.924848 11.050263 20.183274
2025-03-09 0.198054 0.553035 1.324439 2.975340 6.202757 11.926227 22.382678
2025-03-16 0.165270 0.496645 1.256585 2.954408 6.393266 12.670682 24.426296
2025-03-23 0.147529 0.473029 1.255442 3.069567 6.856897 13.941919 27.488882
2025-03-30 0.120608 0.417698 1.172406 2.999356 6.948480 14.545424 29.417548
2025-04-06 0.101773 0.379237 1.121597 2.991857 7.165602 15.401113 31.870051
2025-04-13 0.084718 0.340556 1.062350 2.955696 7.317981 16.145235 34.171990
2025-04-20 0.075426 0.323551 1.055743 3.042380 7.742408 17.452579 37.626222
2025-04-27 0.066447 0.304664 1.040383 3.105473 8.121578 18.699696 41.051459
2025-05-04 0.057415 0.282372 1.010861 3.128351 8.412023 19.788848 44.242196
2025-05-11 0.050057 0.263698 0.988056 3.165275 8.738805 20.978216 47.711264